Wow! Hi! It’s been a while. After this brief elongated moment of silence I felt a lot of resistance to write again. Since I let this sit dormant for so long I thought I was doing a disservice to the people who supported this (and me) initially, and to sporadically ping them again was inconsiderate.
Then I remembered that it’s not that deep, and all work is good work. This is an experiment. Things will get in the way but as long as you keep chipping away, things will take shape.
So, I’m getting back to this blog’s original intention and coming at you today with a book recap. I recently finished reading “The Formula” by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi. This book is focused on what the author deems the “universal laws of success” which, admittedly, is a pretty bold claim.
As you would expect, the larger the claim or promise, the more vague the advice actually is – but that is sort of the point. Here is a Spark Notes style recap while the content is still fresh.
Let’s dive in.
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Rule #1: Performance drives success, but when performance can’t be measured, networks drive success.
There are many environments in life where performance of an individual or action can be measured efficiently. Objectively, sales departments measure success on a very simple metric. Performance is clear. But things get murky when you’re in a more subjective field. Let’s say, the field of ideas.
Rationale for good, better, and bad is difficult to quantify. When that is the case, having a network of people to vouch for you is the clearest way to separate yourself from the rest. A track record to establish credibility, you could say.
Even if from a critical standpoint two works are essentially the same, the early network that supports and reinforces the acclaim of one will drive the difference. Attention begets attention. So, thank that core group of friends who are quick to favorite your tweets or share your art. Those actions signal to others, and the algorithm, that the work is worth their time and attention.
It could really matter more than the actual quality of the work itself.
Rule #2: Performance is bounded, but success is unbounded.
At the furthest end on the bell curve of performance, separation between great and greatest is barely visible to the naked eye. What that means is at the upper bounds of a field, performance is bounded. There are simply limits to how great you can be.
For example, there is a certain individual today employed by the Golden State Warriors who holds the highest 3pt shooting percentage in NBA history.
No, it’s not Steph Curry and his 42.8% lifetime clip. It’s his coach Steve Kerr, with a ridiculous 45.4%. But case in point, you probably thought it would be Steph Curry, who’s widely regarded as the greatest shooter the game has ever seen. Revolutionizing the game, creating the Curry Effect.
The distance between 1st and 12th on the all-time list is 2.6%, with Steph actually in 12th. The upper bounds of performance, the far right side of that bell curve, sit around 45% with only 2.6% separating the top dozen shooters of all time. This reinforces the point that performance is bounded (45% and 43% respectively), but success is unbounded.
Curry’s fame and recognition for being the greatest shooter the game has ever seen has catapulted him into the upper echelon of fame and into the top 75 NBA players of all time.
Of course he is deserving of all the accolades, but this example is used to illustrate the difference between performance and “success”. When measured in fame, money, attention, success can outpace performance by a wide margin.
Rule #3: Previous success x fitness = future success.
If you’re capable of creating a winner, then you have a leg up in the next venture. Duh.
Who doesn’t love a second time founder? Yes but, the “fitness” of the idea is still important. Fitness is used to give a score to the quality of the idea. The example in the book was Steve Jobs, who had tons of discarded projects and innovations for Apple that were written off as having poor fitness, or no product-market fit.
That doesn’t mean he was a bad innovator, obviously. It just means that the idea and the person both have to have potential.
There are tons of examples today to look at, but to put the web3 nerd-hat on for a second, let’s look at Justin Khan and Fractal. Khan started Twitch, which sold to Amazon for $1 billion in 2014. So he has previous success and credibility. Now he’s heading up Fractal, which aims to be a widespread marketplace that enables NFT integration across game and chain. The fitness of that idea is yet to be proven but the equation is halfway there.
Rule #4: While team success requires diversity and balance, a single individual will receive credit for the group’s achievements.
This one felt out of place, but the point I got from this was that personal branding is important. People affiliated the work and success of group projects with whomever on the team was most closely tied to the topic.
While reading this part I thought of the Twitter trend where troves of people have been adding “the ___ guy/girl” to their Twitter bio. Just another tick to associate X with Y. When I see DTC stuff? I think Nik Sharma. Writing? David Perell or Dickie Bush. Shitposting? Elon. (No link needed)
From a team perspective, the contributed amount of each individual matters less than the perception of those who bestow the credit. What the recipients of the work see matters most. So if a team member has already started to own that topic or space, they’re most likely to get the majority of credit or association.
Rule #5: With persistence, success can come at any time.
Initially, studies had attributed youth as a leading indicator of impact. Meaningful impact was said to have to happen before the early 30’s, or not at all.
What the book’s case study focuses on, is that those numbers only cluster because those are the times that people put the most work out. Yes, you could chalk it up to youthful naiveté and seeming endless energy. But, the argument which was backed up with data, was that it only looks like people make the most impact during those years because they put less shots on goal as life goes on.
If you can create a winner, keep creating. Not every idea will work, but the more times you play the game, the more chances you have.
These are fun things to keep in mind as we all analyze the attention game that is played so fervently on Twitter. As we all participate in The Great Online Game, knowing that these things combine to help push the likelihood of success along can be a helpful framework to filter our actions. It can make some sense of the seemingly random success stories that always pop up.
I hope you enjoyed this recap! If you want more content like this, drop a comment or respond to this via email and it will reach me. Or text / call / fax. I’m here!
More to come.
Rule #5 about Persistence is the most important.